The Year Ahead

by Randy G. Pennington

The annual Workplace Predictions article has been a staple of my newsletters for the past five years. It appears at either the end of December or in early January. This year it didn't.

The 2009 prognostications were closer to right than wrong:

1. We reached 10% unemployment, just a little later than I expected.
2. The improving job outlook I expected in the last quarter of the year turned out to be slowing job cuts rather than growth.
3. Baby Boomers did continue to work ... if they could find it.
4. The Big Two in Detroit wasn't a factual reality; although most would agree that Chrysler is no longer a dominant name in the industry.

So what about 2010?

I started my 2010 Workplace Predictions article in November 2009. At that point, Congress was still focused on healthcare reform rather than jobs, and the economic stimulus money was just beginning to filter down to main street. And, federal deficits were at an all-time high with little hope of being controlled.

I decided to wait on looking at the year ahead, and I'm glad I did. The picture is much different today than it was on January 1, 2010. So with apologies for the delay, here is my look ahead for the remaining of this year:

• Politics will continue to trump leadership.
  Washington, DC is a train wreck, and any meaningful action toward bi-partisan leadership is doubtful this year. Both parties are at fault. There is room for principled disagreement, but the current state of affairs is well beyond that.
  
  Normally, grid lock in Washington makes it more difficult for our elected leaders to do stupid stuff. But, these are not normal times. We need real leadership to spur private investment and job growth; tackle our growing debt; and yes, improve our health care. Make no mistake, the failure of our elected officials to lead has an impact - both physical and psychological - on our ability to sustain a recovery. The only hope is that we demand better from those we choose to lead us.
• The end of the recession will not immediately ease the pain.
  Expect to hear that the recession officially ended sometime between October 2009 and February 2010. Do you feel better? I didn't think so.
  
  It will take growth in the range of 450,000 jobs per month for the next 18 to 24 months to return to unemployment rate to something close to what we remember just a few years ago. That won't happen.
  
  It will be years before job growth catches up to the carnage that happened in this recession. A significant number of jobs - maybe as high as 30% - won't ever return. The down side is only small, if any, growth in real wages. One upside is that companies will have plenty of top talent from which to choose for the openings that do happen. I believe another upside is that we will see the next great generation of entrepreneurs emerge in the next five years. Pent up demand combined with available talent will be exciting.
• Employee loyalty comes home to roost.
  Don't confuse the slow return of jobs with no return of jobs. Companies will eventually start hiring. And when they do, the companies who have balanced their balance sheets on the back of employees by forcing them to work multiple jobs at reduced pay are vulnerable.
  
  If you are a leader in an offending company, you have a 6 to 12-month window of time to start regaining the trust and loyalty of your staff. If you are a leader in a company who has not thrown your team under the bus, get ready to take advantage of the opportunities that arise when a talented, committed staff are unleashed in a resurgent marketplace.
• Leaders rule the day.
  Leadership has very little to do with position. It has everything to do with your ability to influence others through your character, competence, consistency, communication, and courage. There is not a single problem in our organizations, communities, or even families that can be solved without leadership. If you want to make an impact where you live and work, be a leader. If you want to make yourself invaluable to your employer (regardless of your position), be a leader.
  
  One more thing: If you want to position your organization for success in the future and put yourself in a position for personal and organizational growth, be a leader who grows other leaders.
• 2010 is a transition year.
  William Bridges wrote, "It isn't the changes that do you in, it's the transitions." The depth and breadth of the recession has caused radical changes in how we think and act. Crisis is, after all, an excellent motivation to change. And even with all the pain and carnage, I sense an opportunity for organizations and individuals to re-calibrate and re-invent.
  
  Transition is often painful, and this one is likely to take longer than a single year. But, those who will emerge as the winners from this recession will use 2010 to define what is and isn't over and then take proactive steps to define and actively manage their future.

So what changed in the six weeks between what I was going to write about 2010 and today? I am cautiously more optimistic about the opportunities and absolutely sure that, collectively, we have an opportunity to make things better.

Randy Pennington helps leaders create cultures focused on results, relationships, and accountability. For additional information or to schedule Randy for your organization: contact via telephone at 972/980-9857; e-mail at Mary@penningtongroup.com; or on the World Wide Web at http://www.penningtongroup.com. Send comments to Randy@penningtongroup.com.

©2010 by Pennington Performance Group; Addison, TX. All rights reserved. This article may be downloaded for personal and professional development. Copies may be shared within an individual organization. All other uses of this material are strictly prohibited without written permission from the author.

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